Climate Column: The Implications of New Tompkins County Flood Maps

In mid-2024, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is expected to release the latest flood maps for Tompkins County, including the City of Ithaca. Flood maps evaluate an area’s flood risk by creating zones of different risk levels and can also determine whether or not homeowners must buy flood insurance. Tompkins County’s flood maps were last updated in 1981, over four decades ago. After FEMA announced that it would begin updating flood maps in 2015, the City of Ithaca formed a committee to conduct a Local Flood Hazard Analysis, which found that flood risks are much higher now than they were forty years ago.
 Indeed, drastic changes in weather patterns have increased flood risks for many parts of Tompkins County, which is already prone to flooding. These severe weather phenomena have only been exacerbated by climate change, and according to FEMA officials, will cause flooding in areas that have never flooded before. The new flood maps significantly expand flood zones in Tompkins County, especially in the City of Ithaca. The areas surrounding Buttermilk Falls, Six Mile Creek, and Fall Creek are all designated high-risk zones.
 The upcoming maps are bad news for property owners in these high-risk zones, who may now be required to purchase flood insurance. Homeowners with government-backed mortgages are legally required to buy flood insurance if they are located in a high-risk zone, and many private mortgages require flood insurance as well. Because flood insurance rates vary based on property costs, purchasing flood insurance often costs homeowners several thousand dollars annually. In 2022, the average annual cost of flood insurance in Tompkins County was 1,186 dollars, according to the Ithaca Times, but individual costs vary widely. This leaves a huge burden on property owners, who are also required to acquire flood insurance within forty-five days of the new flood maps officially taking effect.
 To help alleviate the costs that the new flood maps will create, the City of Ithaca is pursuing grants and initiating flood mitigation and infrastructure projects. In late December 2023, the City was awarded a FEMA grant that would cover the first phase of a project to install flood walls and flood controls along the Six Mile, Cascadilla, and Fall Creeks. Of the eight hundred thousand dollar project, FEMA will cover ninety percent of the costs while the City will fund the rest. Upon completing this first phase, which is expected to take three years, FEMA will review funding for a second phase, although it is currently unclear what this would entail. According to Mayor Laura Lewis, it is the city’s hope that these projects will lead to changes in the flood maps. “By proactively enhancing our flood mitigation measures, we not only bolster our community’s resilience but also work towards alleviating the strain on individual budgets,” she said in an official statement regarding the FEMA grant.
 The new flood maps will only exacerbate the existing social disparities in Tompkins County. The income inequality measured by the Gini Index in Tompkins County is forty-nine percent, as opposed to the US average of forty percent. According to the 2023 Ithaca Living Wage Report, 37.5 percent of Ithaca workers make less than the living wage of 18.45 dollars per hour. Within this number, 59 percent of Black workers earn below the living wage, in comparison with 35 percent of white workers. Unless the city can rapidly institute infrastructure to alleviate these costs, the new flood insurance requirements will disproportionately affect Ithaca’s Black residents.
 In addition, many Ithacans are worried that the new flood maps will increase gentrification in designated high-risk areas, which refers to the process through which current inhabitants of an area are displaced, gradually priced out of their neighborhoods. Gentrification displaces families from urban areas, which harms low-income families who lose access to resources offered in downtown areas, such as public transportation. The Southside neighborhood in Fall Creek is at particular risk, with most of the neighborhood being categorized as having the highest possible flood risk level, requiring individuals to buy flood insurance. Southside is a historically Black neighborhood in Ithaca that has thrived for over 150 years and has recently been feeling the effects of gentrification. Sonya Hicks, who has lived in Southside for nearly three decades, said in an article from The Nation, “I’ve seen residents that have lived and died in this area […]… the home remains, but the residents no longer are African American.”
 According to Chavon Bunch, the executive director of the Southside Community Center, residents could be expected to pay between seven thousand and ten thousand dollars annually in flood insurance and taxes. “That’s hard for anyone. I can’t imagine what these renters or people who don’t make as much are going to do,” he explained. With nearly seventy percent of Ithaca’s population renting renters, it’s likely that the new maps will compound Ithaca’s ongoing housing crisis. A February 2024 report from the Milken Institute found that thirty percent of Ithaca residents are paying more than thirty percent of their income on housing, and with new flood insurance requirements, this percentage of income could rise even higher. The period of time between when homeowners must buy insurance and when flood mitigation infrastructure will be finished—three years, as predicted by the city—will likely leave many residents scrambling.
 Even so, the revised flood maps reflect rapid environmental and weather changes due to climate change. Tompkins County cannot escape from the effects of climate change, which only increases the urgent need for climate action and flood mitigation. In doing so, the City must prioritize support for low-income communities and continue creating a more sustainable future.