At the NBA’s February 7 trade deadline, for the sixth straight season, the New York Knicks remained out of the playoff picture. On paper, this season’s circumstances seemed more dire than ever before—the Knicks had lost 14 straight games prior to the deadline, and after months of quietly exploring trades, the Knicks made the shocking move to deal all-star Kristaps Porzingis to the Mavericks.
Surprisingly, despite the Knicks’ atrocious season, fans have displayed a sense of optimism about the direction of the team. Although two decades overdue, the Knicks appear to have finally committed to a rebuild, with success stories like Mitchell Robinson and Allonzo Trier to show for it. Even more, with rumors about superstars having interest in coming to New York in the offseason, some believe that the team could be poised for success as early as next year.
As much as I’d like to have something to look forward to as a Knicks fan, I find myself highly pessimistic about the current vision for the team’s future. To me, the Kristaps Porzingis trade was the first red flag in the Knicks’ path back to relevance. Leaked information suggested that Porzingis would have turned down the maximum contract that the Knicks would have offered him in the offseason. Instead, sources say that he would have instead signed a one-year qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent in 2020, where the Knicks would lose the ability to match a contract offer from another team.
However, coming off of an ACL tear and with a long history of lower body injuries, I find it extremely hard to believe that Porzingis would have turned down a guaranteed $157 million in the offseason in place of his $4.5 million qualifying offer. While Dennis Smith Jr. is a talented prospect, and although the first round picks and salary flexibility the Knicks received in return are undoubtedly a positive, it’s disappointing that the organization did not try harder to mend relationships with and re-sign one of the NBA’s most talented young players.
I also find it extremely worrisome that the Knicks are hedging their bets on the NBA draft. Unlike in previous years, where the worst team in the NBA would have a 25 percent chance at winning the draft lottery, the NBA’s new draft lottery system gives teams with the four worst records an equal 14 percent chance at the top pick. While the Knicks have done a splendid job of losing games to be one of these four teams, there’s a very high probability that they won’t end up with the top pick in the draft. Seeing the 2019 draft’s top prospect, Zion Williamson, in a Knicks jersey would be incredible, but almost certainly, the Knicks won’t have the chance to select him. This will leave them with one of the second-tier prospects in the draft—RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish, Ja Morant, Nassir Little, or Romeo Langford—each of whom has glaring weaknesses despite their upside. Outside of Williamson, this year’s draft appears to be one of the weaker ones in recent memory, and despite the Knicks’ terrible record, they may not find themselves able to add a game-changing talent to their young core.
Finally, the greatest delusion in the path to winning for the Knicks is the idea that the team will attract one, or possibly even two, all-NBA caliber talents in the offseason. While numerous sources have tied the team to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, among others, unless any of these rumors is substantiated by league sources or by the players themselves in the coming months, I see no reason to expect a marquee free agent to come to New York. After all, the Knicks have been an incredibly dysfunctional organization since the turn of the century, with countless examples of incompetence and with the league’s worst winning percentage over the past 20 years. Even though the Knicks’ current front office appears to have a steadier hand than those in the past, and while Head Coach David Fizdale has been a solid locker-room presence during his tenure, neither of these elements are close to enough to convince a top free agent to spend their prime in New York. Additionally, while the Knicks have a few interesting young prospects, none of them have shown the potential to be a second or third star for the team next year, when such a free agent would play with the team. There’s very little else besides the atmosphere of playing and living in New York City that would convince any free agent to sign with the Knicks. Even if a free agent takes the risk to join the team, without another star or a solid supporting cast, the team won’t go very far.
In the very likely event that the Knicks strike out in free agency, they need to be extremely cautious about signing role players to large contracts. It’s a troubling sign that the current front office is the same one that signed Tim Hardaway Jr. to his monstrous contract, and annoyingly, there are plenty of mediocre free agents this year that could pique the interest of the front office and receive unwieldy contracts. The Knicks can and most certainly should avoid this path, instead keeping their cap space for future offseasons. Meanwhile, the organization should focus its efforts on re-signing on affordable contracts players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Noah Vonleh, both of whom have flourished in New York after being written off earlier in their careers, as well as finding other such diamonds in the rough in the 2019 free agency class.
If there’s anything to be optimistic about in New York, it’s not the unrealistic, grandiose vision that many have for the Knicks. Rather, fans should be excited that the organization has made many great, small moves in the past year, and that the toxic culture of the 2016-17 season has been shed. If the Knicks continue along their slow but steady trajectory, the future will look much brighter down the road than if they act hastily to go from tanking to contention in this offseason.