By 2050, there will be about nine billion humans on Earth. That is two billion more mouths to feed than now. With shrinking resources of food and fertile land, the future of food becomes a more demanding issue. As our population grows and food supply is more important than ever, we may need to change the foods we consume.
Part of the problem is the amount of arable land: only three percent of Earth’s surface area is arable. Erosion occurs incredibly quickly compared to the amount of time it takes to produce topsoil (about 100 versus 500 years). Soil is obviously crucial in that it allows for agriculture. Soil is packed with nutrients needed for plant growth. Healthy soil is essential for human health and can slow erosion and climate change. Crops can purposely be grown to cover and enrich soil, keeping it healthy when not being used: such crops are known as cover crops. Additionally, cover crops, as well as pasture land, are more plants that take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. In healthy soil, microorganisms act like a glue and protect it from erosion. Soil is the base for growing most food, so just a few inches of dirt, which we are losing quickly, could mean the difference between extinction and survival.
As available resources and environments change, scientists have changed plants to be more suited for them. You may cringe at the words “genetically modified organism” (GMO), thinking of foods unnaturally evolved to stay fresh longer and resist diseases while having unknown long-term effects. However, after examining 1783 studies about the safety and environmental impacts of GMO foods, Italian scientists were not able to find a single source of proper scientific proof that GMOs pose a risk to humans or animals. 85 percent of food products in the U.S. contain some GMOs, all of which are thoroughly tested, and new research is coming out each day. GMOs will play a role in the future of food. 15 percent of plants for agricultural use are destroyed by diseases each year. New varieties of plants can be genetically modified in six months while conventional breeding can take 15 years; this is especially useful when dealing with sudden environmental and climate changes. More people would be fed if genetically modified plants are found to be safe and approved by governments.
Global temperatures have risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880. This increase not only causes many detrimental environmental effects, but also affects food supplies, windows of time for harvest, and storage. The Gulf of Maine has been warming faster than most bodies of water, causing New England cod to reproduce less. Now, these fish, which are a big part of the fishing industry in New England, cannot be replaced as quickly as they are being harvested for food. Similarly, in northern Alaska, where the seal is a main source of food, ice is disappearing due to rising temperatures. This has caused the hunting season for seals to shorten from three weeks to less than one, as seals migrate north more early.
Furthermore, some food that we consume may in turn spread negative effects to the environment. Considering the amount of gasoline needed to raise cows for beef consumption—making fertilizer for the corn that feeds them, farming and transporting that corn, consumers transporting and preparing the beef—producing a pound of beef for human consumption emits more carbon dioxide than burning one gallon of gasoline. Livestock in general make up 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.
If you aren’t ready to subsist on legumes and quinoa for amino acids, how about lab-grown meat? In the meat industry, animals are packed together in such unhealthy conditions that they must be given antibiotics to prevent the spread of disease. In turn, this affects the people who eat their meat. Crops grown to feed agricultural animals could instead be used to feed the human population directly. For these reasons, scientists at Maastricht University in the Netherlands have developed ways in which to grow beef from stem cells in calf serum. The muscle-specific stem cells, taken from the cow through a biopsy, divide to become muscle tissue. The meat is then ground up into burgers. This in vitro study creates meat that produces significantly fewer greenhouse gas emissions and takes up far less land space than conventionally farmed meat. At first, the lab-grown burger cost $350,000. This price has now dropped by 80 percent. Most food critics agree that the in vitro meat does not taste so different from conventional meat, so the big problem we are left with is producing large amounts of in vitro meat. This would require artificial circulatory systems in order to distribute oxygen and nutrients to the muscle tissues. Still, with a growing demand for meat that cannot be met, meat grown in labs may play a great role in the future of food.
Then again, conventional food may not play such a big role in feeding the world. In 2012, Rob Rhinehart developed a meal replacement he called Soylent in order to cut down on grocery costs. Soylent began as a mixture of 35 nutrients needed by humans. The idea behind Soylent is that instead of digesting food for the essential components needed for life functions, one needs only to consume the raw nutrients. A diet based solely on Soylent can therefore be more nutritious than a conventional diet. The standard formula for Soylent has come to consist mostly of common household foods—brown rice for protein, oat flour for carbohydrates, sunflower oil for lipids, plus mineral and vitamin supplements—so that Soylent can be easily made and bought at low prices. Though it is unlikely that Soylent will become more widely consumed than conventional food, it is a good solution to the problem of feeding billions of people.
A number of factors, including a growing population, rising global temperatures, and disappearing resources are leading to a future in which feeding the human race will be an even bigger challenge. However, turning to unconventional methods could help. By accepting genetically modified organisms, slowing global climate change, and conserving Earth’s topsoil, we may be able to feed the expected population of nine billion in 2050.