Following the massive gatherings of both the Democratic and Republican party elites at their respective conventions earlier this summer, our nation now braces itself for a grueling and aggressive 100-day stretch before Election Day in early November. The Republicans have attempted to reconcile after this cycle’s historically large and divisive field of candidates prevented the electorate from even choosing one with a popular vote majority. Post-convention polling had indicated that the party gathering has convinced a larger-than-expected majority of Republicans to back their general election candidate, Donald Trump, a trend which seems to be in reverse following controversial remarks. On the other side, Bernie Sanders supporters have appeared to back Hillary Clinton at similar rates to those of anti-Obama voters after the 2008 Democratic Primary, indicating that this general election should play out similarly to those of previous years for Democrats. Every day and every poll brings us closer to drawing an opinion about how this race will end. I give my updated (my previous prediction can be found on The Tattler website or in the Opinion section of last year’s June issue) general election prediction in the map below.
To understand this map, it is important to understand the shades.
The states that are in the lightest shade are those that Trump is nearly assured to win, and those in the black shading are those that Clinton is assured to win. The states with a dark background and white hashes are states with close polling where I believe Clinton will win, and those with a light background and black hashes are those with close polling with a forecast favoring Trump.
I have evidently provided some new predictions. I previously believed that Utah was not in play, despite close polling, due to the state’s huge weight towards Republican candidates in past elections. However, the huge margin by which the state voted against Trump in the primary as well as the determination of the Gary Johnson campaign to gain ground in the state may result in it being a close three-way race, with each candidate winning about a third of the vote. While it appears demographically unlikely that a third-party candidate will prevent a Trump victory, the 70 percent of Utah’s Republicans who voted for Cruz in the primary are among the nation’s foremost “Never Trump” advocates and may gravitate away from giving their electoral votes to a Republican for the first time since 1968.
Next, I have decided to not include three traditional “purple” states—Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia—as swing states this year. Wisconsin’s harsh voter restriction laws are close to being overturned, providing Clinton with an additional buffer onto her current 8 to 10 percent lead in polling. It is important to consider that the state went for Barack Obama in 2012 despite the home district of Mitt Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, being located there. Virginia is in a similar position for a completely different reason. Clinton’s selection of Tim Kaine, the wildly popular Senator and former Governor of Virginia, gives her a big boost in a state that has already shown gravitation away from Republican politics, as evidenced by its voting for a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. Lastly, Colorado has been designated by both campaigns as being of lower importance than in previous years, implying that both Trump and Clinton believe it will be a safer blue state than expected.
The last interesting update is Indiana. It is the home of Trump’s running mate, but also a state Obama won in 2008. The Trump campaign believes it is a state where they will not have to put in many resources to win; they believe that the popularity of Mike Pence, Indiana’s current governor and the GOP Vice Presidential pick, will be enough to keep it in play as a red-tilted state. However, one reason that Mike Pence decided to join the Trump ticket was because he knew that he would face a tough re-election at home and that the ability to earn national acclaim and potentially the number-two spot was more rewarding. Indiana will have a Senate race this year, featuring the popular Democratic ex-Senator Evan Bayh who holds onto a large polling lead. Likewise, Indiana will also have a race for the governorship where the Republican primary is filled with second-rate, uncompetitive candidates due to Pence’s withdrawal. If Indiana’s Senate and Governor races both go blue, it may allow Clinton to be propelled to victory in the state by her favorable party affiliation.
In this election, the four states that can truly be dubbed swing states are the delegate-rich Georgia, Ohio, Florida, and the smaller but equally important Nevada. In all of these states (with the exception of Georgia), there is also a competitive Senate race, and it is likely that whichever party wins the presidential contest in these states will also gain the respective Senate seat. This is very important to Democrats, who see an opening to gain control of the currently Republican-heavy Senate. Georgia has traditionally been a red state and its Senate race is less competitive, but migration to Atlanta’s suburbs has resulted in it coming into play this year as a potential Clinton win. Because of the controversial nature of the Trump candidacy, I have projected all of these states to go to Clinton. Trump making improvements in his dismal polling or even winning any of these states—most likely Ohio and Georgia—wouldn’t be at all surprising, though, and would lead this election to be highly contested.
This year’s election will be an unprecedented one. We have never seen a candidate as despised as Donald Trump seeking the highest office in the country, and the fact that he may even win is a testament to the fact that this nation desperately desires an unconventional solution to our new problems. Hillary Clinton too faces issues, but has been coasting to huge polling leads in the past month. This slate of candidates may result in competition from third parties and unique state races that will shape not only the presidency, but the composition of our national legislative bodies for years to come.