Our fateful election is now only days away. Twenty-one failed campaigns and a whole year and a half of vicious rhetoric and cynicism later, the end is in sight. What remains now is the significant election that will decide our next Commander-in-Chief. Who will win? Will it be the frontrunner Hillary Clinton, or the seemingly imploding but energized campaign of Donald Trump? Will a third party present a significant challenge this cycle?
To understand my election map, you must understand my color coding. I have made all states I expect Clinton to win black and all expected Trump wins dark grey. The close contests I expect Clinton to win are black with grey crosshatches and the close contests I expect Trump to win are grey with black crosshatches.
Perhaps my most significant prediction is for Utah, which, as you can see, is white with black crosshatches. Following the release of several polls showing Evan McMullin, an independent, in a close third place in the state, I think that Utah will not vote for the Republican nominee for the first time since 1964. The largely Mormon electorate in the state has been vehemently opposed to Trump and his cynicism; Ted Cruz defeated him soundly in Utah during the Republican primaries, winning all of its delegates, and since then both Gary Johnson (of the Libertarian Party) and Clinton have been seen as possible winners there. Trump’s released tapes in which he joked about sexual assault were probably the final factor that doomed his chances in Utah, and I expect some Trump support, most of Johnson’s base, and the current plurality of undecided voters in the Beehive state to eventually come around to the conservative alternative McMullin, handing him his only win in this election cycle. McMullin is a candidate who is perfect for the Utah electorate; himself a Mormon, he embraces many of the values that have been prevalent in Utah politics for the past half-century. If you haven’t heard of McMullin yet, I urge you to do your research, as he may make the greatest political statement of this election cycle by being the first third-party electoral college vote winner since 1968.
Despite this major change, I still think that the outcome of this election is an easy one to predict: Hillary Clinton will be elected as the 45th President of the United States. Her path will be made significantly easier with her current lead in Ohio, a state which, prior to the release of Trump’s lewd comments, I thought was going to vote Republican. A major factor pulling in favor of Trump in Ohio was the highly successful reelection campaign of GOP Senator Rob Portman. This factor was pulling Trump’s margin in the state up significantly, but is no longer in play in the aftermath of the released 2005 tape.
The other major change since my last prediction is the outcome of three battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa. Arizona and Georgia were both seen as lower priority states for Clinton; ones where she could produce a win, but where she would have to put in significant effort to do so. It originally seemed like the Clinton campaign was trying to keep both Iowa and Georgia in play, but after weeks of polling indicated Trump’s lead in both states was steady at 2–3 points, they gave up. I think that while the outcome in Iowa and Georgia will be close, the substantial rural vote will push Trump to victory in these perennial swing states. However, as Georgia and Iowa have gone back to Trump, Arizona may go historically to Clinton. In spite of Trump’s poor relationship with Arizona Senator John McCain and his controversial support of Mariposa County’s radical Sheriff Joe Arpaio, he has taken for granted his slight polling lead in Arizona. It is an alarming reality for the Trump campaign and for the RNC that Arizona is now steadily polling towards a Clinton win. The largely educated and suburban electorate in Arizona is one that Democrats have been targeting for years, and putting it into play this year will be a boon for Democratic nominees in the future.
While the magnitude of a Clinton win this year may vary, it is now clear that she will be our next president. Polling in several states has been close, but she realistically doesn’t have to do very much to win. The states I have projected as non-swing states that will go for Clinton are themselves enough to garner her the necessary 270 electoral votes to be the next president. This, combined with her dominance in most swing states, makes it clear that she has thwarted Trump’s chances of becoming the next Commander-in-Chief.
It’s been a long and arduous election cycle that our country has been embroiled in for almost two years, so it’s a reassuring reality for most Americans that Trump’s chances at becoming the next president are so low. The Democratic Party will be poised for greater successes in the future if Clinton is able to narrow margins in red states and win most swing states.