While February may be the least favorite month of all except for NFL fans, the month does contain some of the most prestigious award ceremonies, including, of course, the Academy Awards. While one can only do so much in terms of predictions of the winners before the nominations themselves are released, I will assume that there will be no untoward surprises on January 24, such as La La Land being snubbed entirely. For the predictions themselves, I have included my favorite from each category where I feel qualified to do so (after all, I can only see so many films) along with my prediction for the film to which the Academy will give the nod in the end. So, without further rambling, here are my Oscar picks for everyone’s favorite year: 2016.
First up is Best Picture, which may be one of the more contested categories this year. Sadly, I can only report to having seen two, or possibly three of the films that will be nominated. When the ballots are counted, the Academy will have voted for La La Land, a film that purportedly captures the true spirit of Hollywood and will be rewarded simply for being made in such cynical times. That being said, out of the paltry few films I truly enjoyed this calendar year, the one most deserving in my eyes was Hell or High Water, barely beating out Manchester by the Sea. Hell or High Water, a reimagining of the Western featuring two brothers facing a foreclosure, may have been a simplistic film, but this serves only to magnify the humanity of it and drive home a message that rings true, especially after the election. Conversely, while it was something close to a masterpiece, Manchester by the Sea did not have any such message ringing clearly, which is not precisely why I am hesitant to appoint it number one. Moonlight, another contender, seemed to be completely bereft of a central message. That being said, this was clearly the most emotional film I have seen this year, beating even Swiss Army Man.
Next, we have the acting awards, which I promise I won’t belabor. Firstly, the locks. Even after his upset loss at the Golden Globes, I see very few scenarios where Mahershala Ali from Moonlight does not come away with Actor in a Supporting Role. In Moonlight, he stood out for sure, but was not present enough to get my pick, which is Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water. Another sure thing is Viola Davis for Actress in a Supporting Role for her role in Fences. After two straight years of zero people of color even getting a nomination for an acting award, we will have at least two win these four categories, with the distinct possibility of a third. Speaking of a third category, Casey Affleck from Manchester by the Sea is the clear front-runner for Actor in a Leading Role. While Denzel Washington, again for Fences, is an option, and a good one at that; look to the Academy to correctly reward the newcomer. Affleck was beautiful in the film as a Massachusetts man, and while I won’t give anything else away, that basically sums up his character and his actions. As silly as that may sound, the superior of the Affleck brothers turned in the performance of a lifetime and will be rewarded. That gets us to the hardest acting category to predict: Actress in a Leading Role. While Isabelle Huppert may have taken home the Globe, I have to go with Emma Stone here, even if, as I have heard, she does not live up to her co-star in her lead role in La La Land. If I had a say, I would go with Amy Adams, who was good, if not great, in her role as linguist Louise Banks in Arrival. While I had my fair share of gripes with the film, mostly about pacing, she did have a good performance in the film and sold the excellent twist at the conclusion.
And now, on to the last few of the important awards that I care about enough to write more than one sentence. For Directing, the only director that could possibly upset La La Land’s Damien Chazelle would be one I would certainly choose, Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea. Don’t count out Barry Jenkins for Moonlight, either. Mel Gibson may surprise us by being nominated for his work on Hacksaw Ridge, but don’t expect a win. I fully expect Damien Chazelle to win this. In the arena of Writing, Moonlight appears to be a shoo-in for Adapted Screenplay, while La La Land and Manchester duke it out in Original Screenplay. Musicals don’t often garner awards for writing, so I predict Manchester by the Sea here, and it would be deserving indeed.
Now, we get into the portion of the article where I get lazy and decide to make an ever so exciting list! (No particular order)
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia—A social commentary that grossed over a billion dollars? The only other contender is Kubo and the Two Strings, which is undoubtedly more beautiful and better made.
Short Film (Animated): Piper—It is the only one I have heard of, and it is by Pixar.
Music (Original Song): “City Of Stars” – La La Land—The central song of the most heralded musical of the year? Yeah, it’ll win. Distant runner-ups: “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana), other La La Land songs (if they get nominated). I personally prefer “Audition”.
Music (Original Score): La La Land—Does this need an explanation? It won at the Globes, it’ll most likely win here as well.
Cinematography: La La Land—Once again, the vaunted film picks up an Academy Award. Watch Arrival for a potential upset; it would be my pick.
Film Editing: La La Land—You know the drill.
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book—I have heard negative remarks only about the humans, but in an animal focused film it shouldn’t matter. I would go for Doctor Strange personally, but Marvel Studios does not have a great track record with the Academy.
Documentary Feature: 13th—A film about criminal justice and race will win this, but will it be
13th, or OJ: Made in America? I’m going with DuVerney.
Costume Design: La La Land—Jackie has a fighting chance.
Production Design: La La Land—Same here with Jackie, but look for La La Land to emerge victorious nonetheless.
Sound Mixing: La La Land—It is a musical.
Sound Editing: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story—I have little idea, it will either be this, Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Deadpool—Deadpool will pull off a surprise in Makeup.
Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann, I guess, either that or The Salesman from Iran seem to be favorites.
Short Film (Live Action) and Documentary (Short Subject): I have no idea, so I will randomly pick a winner from the shortlists. So, “Nocturne in Black” and “The White Helmets” it is.