A reckoning may have arrived for President Trump. On September 24, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced a formal inquiry into the impeachment of the President. Speaker Pelosi stated, “The actions of the Trump presidency revealed the dishonorable fact of the president’s betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security, and betrayal of the integrity of our elections.” This was a harsh condemnation from Pelosi, who until this point had been hesitant to impeach Trump.
Trump’s actions were brought to light through a whistleblower (whose identity has not been confirmed), who spoke with a government official about a call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In this call, President Trump allegedly asked the country of Ukraine to investigate his potential political rival Joe Biden and his son. Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was an advisor for a Ukrainian oil company that has recently come under scrutiny. The company’s founder was accused of and investigated for money laundering but was not convicted; Hunter Biden was never implicated in said investigation. If Trump did, in fact, ask Ukraine for “dirt” on an opponent, that would constitute an impeachable offense.
Trump has made comments about involving foreign countries in elections before. On Thursday, October 3, President Trump was questioned as to whether he had asked the leader of China, Xi Jinping, to start an investigation into Hunter Biden, Trump said that while he hadn’t, it was “certainly something we can start thinking about.” He also said that, because the US is in trade negotiations with China, “if they don’t do what we want, we have tremendous, tremendous power.”
The White House issued an official statement denying all allegations of wrongdoing, calling the inquiry a witch hunt and also saying that the administration will refuse to cooperate with the inquiry. But the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives technically has the power to demand documents from the administration. This fact will likely create serious tension between Democrats and Republicans.
While the impeachment inquiry presents the first major obstacle to his presidency, does Donald Trump stand any chance of actually being removed from office? The short answer is potentially, but not likely, because of how the impeachment process works. For impeachment to begin, the Speaker of the House must open an inquiry into the President. This usually happens when it becomes clear that the President may have done something antithetical to the office’s purpose. Next, there are hearings, in which the House of Representatives and Senate will hear from relevant officials, witnesses, and people close to the President. After that, there is a vote in the House. If a majority of the Representatives vote for impeachment, then the President has officially been impeached. It is important to realize that impeachment does not necessarily equate to removal. For the President to be removed, the Senate must vote for impeachment with a two-thirds majority, or 66 votes, after conducting a trial during which more witnesses will testify. With Republicans holding 53 of the 100 seats, it is unlikely that 19 of them will impeach a President of their own party.
For Democrats, the strategy is likely to use the hearings to build momentum for the 2020 presidential election. Because of the seriousness of an impeachment inquiry, Democrats will be working to be thorough before calling a vote. Once it gets to the Senate, the Republicans will probably call a vote quickly, most likely win said vote, and therefore terminate the inquiry. Unless something seriously shifts, it is unlikely that Trump will be fully removed from office, but with 51 percent of Americans in support of impeachment (according to a Fox News poll), the inquiry will continue to dominate much of the national political conversation.