Courtesy of The Florida PhoenixLeft to right: Governor Ron DeSantis, former president Donald Trump, Governor Kristi Noem
It feels like a recent memory, but seven months have already passed since the turbulent 2020 election, in which former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly defeated the incumbent President Donald Trump. President Biden’s approval rat ing—51%, according to a recent poll from The Economist and YouGov—has remained historically consistent thus far, likely a product of the nation’s steady progress toward post-pandemic normalcy. Although there is plenty of time for conditions to go south for the Biden administration, Republicans will need to assemble a strong presidential ticket to be able to compete in 2024. Here are six Republicans that we will likely see on the campaign trail in the upcoming election.
Having previously served in the United States Navy and the House of Representatives, Ron DeSantis was elected as Florida’s governor in 2018. Republicans have praised—and Democrats rebuked—DeSantis for his lenient policies regarding COVID-19, including his statewide ban on vaccine passports and his vow to pardon all Floridians previously punished for break ing pandemic guidelines. His harsh rhetoric on the Black Lives Matter movement has been similarly controversial. In April, he passed what he called the “strongest anti-rioting legislation in the country,” a measure that appeals to many conservatives. At 42 years old, his relatively young age may give him an advan tage over Biden, who, despite turning 82 in 2024, has stated his intentions to pursue reelection. DeSantis clearly is a polarizing figure, so only time will determine how the nation responds to his campaign.
Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, has also become a popular figure within the GOP. Her friendly relationship with Trump, illustrated by his visit to Mount Rushmore on Indepen dence Day last year, even led some to believe that she would re place former Vice President Mike Pence on the 2020 Republican ticket. Like DeSantis, Noem has stood firmly against enforcing COVID-19 restrictions: she refused to cancel the 2020 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eventually determined had led to a regional coronavirus outbreak, and spent millions of dollars on television advertisements that boasted, “South Dakota is open for adven ture.” Although her policies have kept unemployment rates low in her state, South Dakota has among the highest COVID-19 cases and deaths per-capita in the nation. A few Republicans at the state level have criticized her tendency to get distracted from politics, as seen in her recent argument with rapper Lil’ Nas X over his new music video. Then again, Twitter certainly did not stop Trump from getting elected, and her reputation as a “country woman” may help boost her popularity in rural areas.
Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambas sador Nikki Haley stated in April that she will not run if Don ald Trump seeks the presidency in 2024. Still, her comparative ly moderate stances on key issues could make her competitive if she enters the campaign trail. Haley, whose Indian background made her the target of racist comments during her first guber natorial bid, condemned Trump’s 2017 travel ban on Muslim nations. She would go on to voluntarily leave her position in the Trump administration in 2018 and, unlike most of her Republican colleagues, reprimand the former president’s role in encouraging the January 6th Capitol riot. Yet, Haley’s track record is not perfect. Despite her expressed desire to appeal to traditionally-Democratic minorities, Haley alienated such vot ers during last year’s Republican National Convention, where she confidently asserted that “America is not a racist country” minutes before discussing the discrimination she has faced as a Sikh woman. She was also hesitant to denounce the Confederate flag following the 2015 Charleston church shooting, in which 9 African Americans were killed by a white supremacist attacker.
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina has a reputable record when it comes to race relations, especially in comparison to his potential competitors. Following the 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, during which a white su premacist ran over a group of counter-protestors, Scott stated that President Trump’s “moral authority [was] compromised” following Trump’s notorious comment that there were “some very fine people on both sides.” However, Scott is no moderate. Just this April, Scott delivered the GOP’s response to President Biden’s first address to Congress, a performance that led Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to call him the future of the Republican Party. Virtually all of Scott’s other stances, including those on abortion, the economy, and immigration, are staunchly conservative, meaning he does not stray too far from the ideals of his party.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas could also make a viable run for the 2024 GOP nomination. For the most part, Cotton backed the conservative policies pushed by the Trump admin istration, even speaking for the former president at political rallies and in TV advertisements. In the event that Trump does not run next election, Cotton’s overall voting record may net him an advantage amongst core conservative populations. At the same time, he strongly criticized Trump following the Cap itol riot, a decision that may come back to haunt his bid for the Republican nomination.
Regardless of any emerging opponents, the race for the Re publican nomination will effectively be over if Donald Trump chooses to run again. One Politico-Morning Consult poll from February found that 54% of Republican voters would support Trump in the upcoming GOP primary, easily enough to put him on the national ticket. Since the end of his tenure, the former president has continued to accuse the Biden administration for cheating in last year’s election, a message that Republican vot ers seem to be buying—a separate Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted in April determined that close to 60% of registered Republican voters attributed Trump’s loss to widespread voter fraud, de spite a lack of evidence corroborating such fraud.
Even with his apparent popularity, Trump will inevitably face a set of challenges on his mission for redemption. Like Biden in 2020, he will be 78 when the 2024 election rolls around, so we truly do not know how healthy he will remain down the road. Trump must alter his rhetoric, too, if he wants to keep his base engaged. Repeating disproven claims about the election being “stolen” will get old quickly, since it objectively fails to solve the issues being faced by the nation. Perhaps most significantly, he needs to find a way to campaign with minimal reliance on social media, from which he is mostly banned, and to connect with a younger generation of voters. Trump’s ability to surpass these obstacles will determine the course for the foreseeable future of the GOP—does the party stick to its elderly representatives, or should it push younger candidates that are more familiar with modern society?