Brock Purdy’s rise from obscurity this past NFL (National Football League) season has been nothing short of extraordinary. Chosen by the San Francisco 49ers with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy was expected to ride the bench for the entirety of his rookie season. But when first- and second-string quarterbacks Trey Lance and Jimmy Garropolo were injured, he was thrown into the starting role. In the successive five games, Purdy shocked all analysts and fans by putting up unbelievable numbers. He threw for eleven touchdowns and only two interceptions while completing almost sixty-nine percent of his passes.
The 49ers won all five games started by Purdy and entered the playoffs as the two-seed in the NFC (National Football Conference). They won both their wildcard and divisional matchups. However, in the conference championship, they faced their toughest challenge yet in the Philadelphia Eagles. Unfortunately for the 49ers, Purdy was injured early in the game, eventually resulting in a crushing twenty-four-point defeat.
Although he was unable to raise the Lombardi trophy this season, Purdy’s dominance begs several questions of NFL executives and fans. For one, many quarterbacks come into the NFL with novel styles. Teams have simply had less time to analyze rookies’ tactics and tells. After an offseason of watching film, defenders generally catch up and can more accurately predict a quarterback’s decisions.
The true test for Brock Purdy will be whether or not he can improve at the same rate as the defenses he faces. Before jumping on the Purdy bandwagon, one must consider that five games are less than a third of a season, with very little opportunity to show consistency. If Purdy wishes to be considered a perennial pro bowl caliber quarterback, he must maintain a high level of play throughout his career.
Secondly, if Purdy does turn out to be the real deal, then scouts and NFL executives must ask themselves why they are letting talented prospects slip through the cracks. Famously, Tom Brady (the G.O.A.T. himself) was selected with the 199th pick in his draft class.
It’s true that first-round picks generally have more prosperous careers than later-round selections, but many of football’s greatest champions were not highly scouted coming out of college. Draft analysts should look critically at the existing system and attempt to explain exactly why it is failing to identify many talented players, who could eventually become centerpieces in a dominant franchise.
But the biggest takeaway from Purdy’s sudden rise to stardom is not the ineffectiveness of draft analysis or the difficulties of maintaining consistency. So many talented people (in sports or any other field) miss their chance because of bad luck. Our ability to reach our potential depends, in large part, on luck of the draw. The circumstances in which we were born or the choices of others in our lives set us on the tracks that we take.
If Purdy had been passed on by just one more team, he would never have been drafted and likely never played a game in the NFL. The lesson to be learned is that people in worse circumstances than us are often not there for lack of trying. They just missed out on luck’s roulette.