Ever since Ukraine was attacked by Russia in 2021, the war in Ukraine has been one of the largest of the 21st century, with rapidly increasing combat and civilian casualties and a major impact on the rest of the world. It still shows no signs of ending and has led to about 17 million refugees, along with numerous accusations of war crimes committed by Russia, such as the destruction of many apartments, schools, and hospitals. So why did all of this start? Why has Russia decided to attack Ukraine?
The history behind Russia and Ukraine’s relationship is long and complicated. Ukraine used to be a part of the Soviet Union but as it collapsed, Ukraine declared independence in 1991. After gaining their independence, Ukraine has had pro-Russian and anti-Russian regimes, causing internal chaos.
The current president, Volodymyr Zelensky, leads a strictly anti-Russian government, which had already raised tensions between the two countries, but the conflict escalated quickly when he asked to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO was founded after the second world war, with the intention of keeping the Soviet Union in check, and so naturally, Russia is against the idea of any of the former Soviet Union countries joining it. Furthermore, Ukraine has gas pipelines that transport Russia’s gas to the rest of Europe. If NATO, and by
extension, the US, control the pipes, it would be catastrophic for Russia as an organization founded to keep watch over them would be not only geographically closer, but also have power over one of their major sources of export. Not only this, but Putin is said to have “imperial dreams” and wants to bring back the times when its neighboring countries were under Russia’s control.
However, it is important to address that Putin’s beliefs do not align perfectly with those of the Russian people. Numerous protests throughout Russia have shown that some do not agree with their current government. This may be because many Russians have friends and family in Ukraine, and they do not wish to fight their own. Adding to the confusion, Putin has placed restrictions against contradicting what the Russian government has stated about the war. Putin’s government has yet to acknowledge that the conflict is an invasion, and has not mentioned civilian bombings, especially the bombing of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city. Citizens are told that Ukrainians are in support of Russian rule and welcome the soldiers, and that there are no civilian casualties. The Russian government has also hired people to spread misinformation on social media, and some social media platforms including Facebook and Instagram have been blocked. By spreading propaganda and misinformation, many Russians are unaware of the brutalities the war has caused. This further aggravates the difference between what Putin’s government sees and what the Russian people see.
After more than a year since the war’s onset, the fight for Ukraine’s sovereignty has still not ceased. NATO has confirmed that Ukraine will be joining its ranks, and after the use of numerous sanctions and diplomatic tactics against Russia, Putin seems to be running out of the resources and funds necessary for a war. Ukraine has regained some of their land, but areas east of the cities Kherson and Bakhmut, and the Crimean peninsula are still under Russian military control.
Russia has frequently shifted its goals, but its current aim is to take land outside the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine’s goal is to liberate all of its territories, including the Crimean peninsula, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014. In terms of territory, experts are unclear on who’s winning.
However, in terms of morale, Ukraine appears to have a distinct advantage. Ukraine, despite the war going on for so long, has high morale, but Russia has had unclear goals from the start, making it hard for civilians to support the war effort. Doubts about the war are spreading among even Russian nationalist communities. It is also important to point out that public opinion as of this moment is drastically in support of Ukraine. Ukrainian flags are seen everywhere around the world, and protests against Russia to end the war and against each of the protesters’ governments to do more to help Ukraine are commonplace.
In terms of military advantage, experts are again unclear. They say it depends on whether the military equipment provided to Ukraine from around the world will be effective, and how resilient the Russian army is. There haven’t been drastic changes to the frontlines for a while, and the Ukrainian and Russian armies seem well matched. In terms of negotiations, neither power appears to have a significant advantage. Given all of these uncertainties, there is a possibility that the war will drag on for much longer.
The war in Ukraine has affected the entire world. In Ukraine, it has left millions without access to food or water, and missiles have destroyed about half of Ukraine’s power grid. Billions of dollars worth of damage has been done to the country. Millions of refugees have fled their home country for this very reason, and many of them have been accepted by nearby countries.
Ukraine also has a huge grain market, one that feeds about 400 million in parts such as the Middle East and Africa. Many have not been able to get these grains since Ukraine has been unable to export it during the war, adding onto a preexisting hunger crisis. Furthermore, prices for gas have risen dramatically around the world because it was difficult for Ukraine and Russia to export any of it since they were busy with a war, leading to a shortage.
The environment has also suffered, since emissions from reconstruction of Ukrainian cities are estimated to release massive amounts of carbon emissions. Funding the war is costing Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars, and additional military resources ranging from tanks to guns have been sent to Ukraine by other countries.
There is also a growing concern that this war will spread to other parts of the world as well. With tensions rising between China and Taiwan and between the West and the Middle East, some experts even say that the war in Ukraine may grow into a larger, global war, especially if other countries get directly involved. Some go even further to state the possibility of another world war, something all countries want to avoid.
With decades of ideological conflict, politics, and history involved in the war, many are left unsure of the impacts it could bring.