With the first pick of the 2024 NFL draft, the _______ select _____! Fill in the blanks and you’ve summarized every avid football fan’s life in April. The NFL draft molds the future of entire franchises, giving a team a cornerstone superstar around which to build, a mediocre role player, or even a depressingly awful bust. The outcomes of drafted players are always at least somewhat dictated by chance and intangibles, neither of which scouting can account for very effectively. For this reason, the NFL draft never fails to excite viewers, as we watch the careers of the draftees develop over time. A second thought selected in the last round might turn out to be the greatest star of them all!
Nevertheless, players drafted in the higher rounds do tend to be more successful in the NFL. The draft consists of seven rounds of thirty-two picks each. Every team is afforded one selection per round, but may trade away this draft capital for players or future years’ picks. The NFL team with the worst record in the previous season picks first in each round, and the Super Bowl winner picks last. Teams are then arranged in between those two poles according to their regular season and playoff records.
This year, the first overall selection was granted to the Carolina Panthers, who won two out of their sixteen games last season. However, the Panthers traded away their pick to the Chicago Bears, who selected the star quarterback Caleb Williams out of the University of Southern California. The draft was off! Of course, Williams is a very impressive prospect, but more than two hundred other college hopefuls were picked up over the coming days. The following is a list of several selected players who I believe will perform very well in the NFL, or are good value picks for the round in which they were drafted. I will undoubtedly look back at this article in several years and scoff at my mistakes. No doubt the players for whom I am most hopeful will fall flat on their faces. Nevertheless, here is my best effort.
- Jayden Daniels, QB, Louisiana State University
Selected: Round 1, Pick 2
Team: Washington Commanders
Daniels has largely been overshadowed by the consensus No. 1 quarterback Caleb Williams. However, I hold the unpopular belief that Jayden Daniels will perform better at the next level. The NFL has increasingly been moving towards highly athletic and mobile quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is the most high profile example of this archetype, having won MVP twice in his six year career. A conservative estimate of Jayden Daniels’s forty yard dash time is 4.5 seconds, which would already make him one of the fastest signal callers in the NFL. However, that estimate is quite dated (from his first year or two of college) and he is very likely faster now.
Even more important than a quarterback prospect’s raw athleticism is his football intelligence. As football analyst Lance Zierlan says, “Daniels possesses the football intelligence to get himself protected and take care of the football with quality decision-making.” Daniels’s statistics certainly corroborate Zierlan’s claim. Daniels threw ten touchdowns for every interception in his last year at college (compared with six TDs per INT for Caleb Williams).
College quarterbacks often struggle to limit turnovers in the NFL and I believe Jayden Daniels will excel in that area.
- Laiatu Latu, EDGE, University of California Los Angeles
Selected: Round 1, Pick 15
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Latu has been an incredibly productive edge rusher over the past two years. He has accumulated 23.5 sacks in two seasons, and led the NCAA in tackles for loss last year. According to NFL.com, he possesses a very mature play style and compares to Pittsburgh All-Pro TJ Watt (extremely high praise).
In terms of athleticism, Latu is relatively fast for his size, running a 4.64 second forty yard dash at the NFL combine. Unfortunately, his thirty-two inch vertical jump is paltry compared to other prospects, which dampens any enthusiasm about his athletic prowess. Latu does possess at least one elite physical trait; as Ian Cummings of Pro Football Network writes, Latu is “insanely flexible for his size.” Flexibility is very important for an edge rusher because it limits injuries and allows them to bend around larger offensive linemen.
Lastly, Latu passes the eye test. Watching his highlights, I noticed how consistent his wrap-up style of tackling is. He does not appear to rely solely on speed or strength, but has extremely honed technical capabilities.
- Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest University
Selected: Round 4, Pick 24
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Mustapha’s potential was doubted by many colleges coming out of high school. He used that disbelief as fuel to emerge as a standout safety at Wake Forest. Mustapha is very strong for a safety, topping the NFL combine (for his position) with twenty-two reps on the bench press. He plays with ferocity and has the jumping ability to attack the ball at the high point. Mustapha’s NFL.com draft profile points out his ability to place “well-timed” attacks on balls in the air. I envision Mustapha as a player very much like the pro-bowl menace Tyrann Mathieu. He could very easily become the 49ers enforcer in the secondary, using his impressive strength to dole out painfully bone-crushing hits. Of course, Mustapha’s college production and lack of top end speed limited his draft stock, but I believe he has the potential of a much higher selection.
- Travis Clayton, OL, England Rugby
Selected: Round 7, Pick 1
Team: Buffalo Bills
Clayton has never played a down of competitive American football. He is entirely inexperienced and his only real qualification for the NFL is his rugby experience, which may or may not translate well to the Buffalo Bills offense. So why do I rate Clayton so highly? His upside is considerable. Clayton is an enormous man, 6 feet 7 inches tall and more than 300 pounds. At that size he somehow ran the forty yard dash in under 4.8 seconds, faster than every single offensive lineman invited to the NFL combine.
If Clayton can quickly adapt to the NFL, he may have a strong chance to make the Buffalo Bills’ fifty-three man roster. The Bills have long struggled to find high quality offensive line talent. Outside of pro-bowl tackle Dion Dawkins, Bills offensive line play has been inconsistent at best. I definitely see a possible opening for Clayton to eventually start in the NFL. For a 7th round pick, his upside is through the roof. The Bills will barely have to pay him, and he has the potential to transform into an above-average NFL veteran.